Just when we thought that another Roland Garros title was there for the taking for Rafael Nadal, it isn’t.
Just when we thought that Roger Federer was going through a crisis, with no title in four tournaments, a defeat by a wild card in Rome and the sacking of his coach, Tony Roche, he isn’t.
There was absolutely nothing in the way that Federer played throughout the week in Hamburg that offered the slightest suggestion that he would finally be able to get the better of Nadal on clay and end the Spaniard’s remarkable winning streak on the surface. Quite the opposite, in fact. He began by dropping a set to Juan Monaco, did okay against Juan Carlos Ferrero before struggling in three sets against David Ferrer. Then he had another battle on his hands before overcoming Carlos Moya.
The signs were that Nadal would swot Federer aside. He didn’t drop a set going into the semi-finals, and had the comfort and confidence of 81 straight wins on clay. He had never, never, lost a clay court final, against Federer, against anybody, winning all 16 he had played. He was up, Federer was down. The outcome of the Hamburg Masters final was obvious. It was going to be Nadal in straight. But it wasn’t.
The beginning matched expectations, as Nadal swept the opening set with ease 6-2. But then something snapped. Federer emerged from the mental fog that had seemed to envelop him throughout the week, and he began to attack and move like a dream. Maybe it was desperation, perhaps he felt he had no choice but to go-for-broke. Whatever, why ever, it worked, and from a set and two break points down he won 11 of the next 12 games 6-2 6-0. When did Nadal last drop a set 6-0? The Monte Carlo final in 2005, against Guillermo Coria. A lot of balls have gone over the net since then.
Was Nadal feeling the pressure of maintaining his record? Probably not. Was he weakened by a dramatic semi-final against Lleyton Hewitt? Maybe. That match was pretty much as close as it gets, with Nadal edging through 7-5 in the third. Still, unlikely. Nadal is so strong it’s scary. Last week Serena Williams called him an animal. Some believe the manner in which he goes all-out on almost every point might one day lead to injury and an early end to his career. So forget fatigue. It was just that Federer, finally, found the key to beating someone who was unbeatable. Certainly by him, on clay. Played five, lost five, up until Sunday.
Let’s step back a moment to Nadal’s semi-final with Hewitt. If Federer’s win over Nadal was the biggest surprise of the week, then Hewitt’s success after a dismal period was also unexpected. Since he won Las Vegas in early March - itself only his second title in over two years - he had won zero matches coming into Hamburg. An injury suffered at Indian Wells led to a first round loss there, and he didn’t play again until the week before Hamburg, losing in Rome to Oscar Hernandez.
Maybe his success wasn’t such a surprise though, because he does do well in Hamburg, with two previous semis and a quarter in the record books. Still, the fact that he overcame such quality clay-courters as Argentinians Agustin Calleri and Juan Ignacio Chela, and then world number three Nikolay Davydenko, was remarkable, especially in the heavy conditions that prevailed early in the week. A routine win over Spaniard Nicolas Almagro followed in the quarters.
So that makes Hewitt, travelling at 26 years old for the first time on a lengthy trip without his parents, a name to pay serious attention to at Roland Garros.
But still, all eyes will be on Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. Should they both reach the final, can Federer repeat his Hamburg success on Court Central over five sets? Has he found the secret, a way to beat his greatest rival on his favourite surface? Will Nadal go into the contest with the smallest of doubts now gnawing at his mind? Or will his motivation be even stronger, as he bids to show the world number one who is really best on the clay?